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The partisan split in the General Assembly might ease lawmakers' duties next year in the every-10-year exercise in partisan redistricting.
But this surface unity regarding legislative districts might not hold up when legislators rewrite the 11 congressional districts, said Mike McDonald, a redistricting expert at George Mason University.
With a Democratic majority in the Senate and a Republican majority in the House of Delegates, the House may let the Senate Democrats control their process and the Senate may let the House Republicans do their thing, he said.
One possibility is that legislators could let Virginia's congressional delegation redraw its own boundary lines. But McDonald predicts that whatever plan is devised will wind up in court, as happened after the 1990 census and the 2000 census.
Preliminary population numbers indicate some wholesale redrawing of Virginia's districts in the House of Representatives, Virginia Senate and House of Delegates will be necessary.
The figures indicate a further shift in legislative clout from rural areas to suburban districts, particularly in Northern Virginia, said Sen. Janet D. Howell, D-Fairfax. Loudoun County and Prince William County, particularly have shown great growth and will gain more seats in the legislature.
Rural areas and most of the state's cities have lost population, while suburbs have gained. That will mean significant changes for the state's congressional districts.
According to Virginia's estimated 2009 population, each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts should have 717,370 residents.
To bring the districts into balance, lawmakers will have to expand the boundaries of the 2nd and 3rd districts in Hampton Roads, the 5th District in Southside, the 6th District in the Shenandoah Valley and the 9th District, in Southwest Virginia.
The boundaries of the six other districts would shrink because they already exceed the ideal population.
Each boundary shift will feature political calculations.
One subplot will come in Hampton Roads, where the majority black 3rd District, represented by Democrat Robert C. "Bobby" Scott, needs to gain about 60,000 residents.
Whatever the solution, don't be surprised if it winds up in court.
After the 1990 census, Virginia lawmakers created the majority black district with the backing of the U.S. Justice Department.
In 1995, two Republican activists successfully challenged the district in federal court, arguing that the district had been racially gerrymandered. The General Assembly then redrew the district's boundaries, dropping its black majority from 64 percent to 53 percent.
The legislature's 2001 redistricting plan also met a legal challenge. In 2003, a federal judge dismissed a suit brought by nine black residents who said the new plan illegally diluted blacks' voting strength in the 4th District.
This time around, much might depend on the Nov. 2 congressional elections, Howell said.
At present Democrats control six of Virginia's 11 seats, but Republicans are trying to regain a majority, targeting four Democratic incumbents in competitive contests.
Redrawing the state's General Assembly districts might be the comparatively easy part.
"We probably won't meddle with each other's plans," Howell said, referring to the Democratic Senate and the Republican House of Delegates.
But there already are signs that the legislative cooperation may not hold up.
Del. Mark L. Cole, R-Spotsylvania, chairman of the House Privileges and Elections Committee, last week set six public hearings by a five-member House subcommittee between Sept. 8 and Dec. 17 to solicit public input into redistricting.
"I am very disappointed the House has not included us in the hearings," said Howell. "Joint hearings were held in the past."
Cole said the omission of the Senate was "an oversight" and that he plans to talk about it with Howell.
Howell also expressed disappointment that Cole scheduled hearings before the final population numbers are known. Preliminary population numbers, based on July 2009 estimates, were announced last week, but the final Census Bureau numbers will not be known until February, when the assembly is in session.
McDonald said the population gains -- particularly in Northern Virginia -- would appear to favor Democrats, but he noted that Virginia has a Republican governor, Bob McDonnell, with veto power over any redistricting legislation sent to him.
Because Democrats in the Senate don't have enough votes to override a gubernatorial veto, they are not likely to send to McDonnell a wildly partisan plan, he said.
The Democrats have a 22-18 majority in the Senate. Republicans hold 59 of the 100 House seats.
Whatever the outcome, the General Assembly will be operating on a tight timetable, McDonald pointed out.
Because General Assembly elections will be held in November 2011, the legislature must approve new lines and get Justice Department approval in time to hold nominating contests. The nominating contests are usually held in early June, but the assembly already has discussed postponing the nominations.
Because of Virginia's past history of racial discrimination, the U.S. Justice Department, under the Voting Rights Act, must approve all lines that the General Assembly redraws. The Justice Department has 60 days to do so.
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