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Washington’s bipartisan redistricting commission is wrestling with where to
put the state’s new 10th congressional district, and the decision it makes will
have significant bearing on the politiical future of the state’s most vulnerable
member: Republican Dave Reichert.
The commission last month produced four proposals – two
from the two Democratic members of the commission and two from the Republican
members – and the two sides will soon release one final proposal each. (Yes,
that’s a lot of proposals.)
From there, the sides will have to negotiate a compromise that can get at
least three of the four commissioners to support it.
We don’t yet know what that compromise will look like, but we do have a good
idea about what the final two maps will look like, based on similarities in the
initial four proposals.
The two Republicans on the commission – former senator Slade Gorton and former state legislator Tom Huff – are proposing putting the new
district, which the state gained thanks to population growth that exceeded the
national average, northeast of Seattle, taking in much of growing Snohomish
County and stretching up to the Canadian border.
The two Democrats on the commission – former Seattle deputy mayor Tim
Ceis and former state House chief clerk Dean Foster – meanwhile, have
based the new district in the state capital of Olympia, just southwest of
Seattle.
The real-world effects of both of the Republican plans and both of the
Democratic plans are pretty similar. The GOP plans make both Reichert’s 8th
district east of Seattle and the new district into swing seats, while the
Democratic plans make Reichert’s a GOP-leaning district and the new district a
Democratic-leaning one.
“Everything else is pretty much same,” said a GOP source watching the
situation closely. “They’re not that far off on a lot of stuff.”
The question from here is how a compromise map might take shape. Given that
three of the four commissioners have to sign off on the proposal, it seems the
final answer will lie somewhere between what the GOP is proposing and what
Democrats are proposing. Ah, compromise.
Finding that sweet spot is in the hands of just a few men, literally, so it’s
hard to game out the possible outcomes.
What we do know: Republicans feel good about Reichert’s prospects broadly,
given that he has survived in a Democratic-leaning district in some very tough
years against very well-funded opponents. He gets help in all four proposals,
but the question is just how much help he gets.
(Some Republicans think he needs more help, as his constituents have been
trending Democratic. And even though Republicans feel good about his reelection
prospects, if the 61-year old retires or runs for higher office, it would be a
tough seat to defend.)
Democrats, meanwhile, appear happy to trade in their long-frustrating pursuit
of Reichert’s seat in order to give themselves a good chance of winning the
state’s new congressional district — a win that would maintain their majority in
the state’s congressional delegation. (Democrats currently hold five of the
state’s nine congressional seats, after freshman Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) won a seat formerly held by the other side in 2010.)
Herrera Beutler and Democratic Rep. Rick Larsen, who also had a tough
race in 2010, will both likely get safer no matter what the final map looks
like.
Herrera Beutler’s southern 3rd district loses Democratic-leaning Olympia
under all four proposals, and the rest of her district has been drifting towards
the GOP. It still would lean only slightly Republican, though, so she could have
tough races ahead.
Larsen’s 2nd district, meanwhile, sheds much of GOP-leaning eastern Snohomish
County on all of the maps – either to the new district in the GOP proposals or
to Reichert in the Democratic proposals.
Under the GOP plans, in fact, Larsen would be very safe because much of his
current district comprises the new district.
The rest of that state’s incumbents represent safe areas that will either
stay that way or get even safer.
The process is supposed to be completed by Dec.
1, but could last until the end of the year.
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