The Hill

Redistricting top issue in gov. races

February 23, 2009

By: Reid Wilson

Both Democrats and Republicans are set for a mammoth battle across the nation next year as three dozen governorships come up for grabs.

Though the focus of this week’s National Governors Association (NGA) meetings in Washington have been on the billions of dollars in stimulus money headed to each state, party strategists are keeping an eye on state chief executives for another reason: After the 2010 elections, those who control governors’ mansions will have an outsized influence on redistricting — and with it, the partisan makeup of Congress for the next decade.

“If you’ve delivered for your state, if you’ve improved your classrooms, if even in hard economic times you’ve made tough decisions, the voters of your state will recognize that and will keep you in place,” said Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), who is heading his party’s campaign efforts this cycle.

By the time the 2010 cycle is complete, at least 18 new governors will be in office, thanks to term limits. And with a number of incumbents vulnerable to strong contests, as many as two dozen current chief executives could be in the market for new jobs.

Both the Democratic and Republican governors associations are sounding the alarm and raising previously unheard-of sums of money. The record amounts come as both parties use impending reapportionment and redistricting in their pitches, two processes that could shape Congress for a decade to come.

The Democratic Governors Association (DGA) raised $23 million in 2008, beating its previous best record, while the Republican Governors Association (RGA) hauled in $27.5 million last year.

The RGA also will announce $10.25 million raised during fundraising events held in conjunction with the NGA meetings. The DGA has not announced its year-to-date figures yet.

Both parties held major fundraising galas Monday night. Republican Govs. Mark Sanford (S.C.), Charlie Crist (Fla.) and Haley Barbour (Miss.) keynoted the GOP’s event, while the DGA’s party featured 15 governors from around the U.S.

Over the past three years, Democrats have had the most success in winning back executive slots. In 2006, Democrats picked up six seats; in 2007, the parties traded control of Kentucky and Louisiana; and in 2008, Democrats picked up Missouri’s governor’s mansion while defending vulnerable seats in Washington state and North Carolina.

But a mantra is building inside the Republican Party: The future of the party will come from the ranks of GOP governors.

“People want to see policies that indeed make their lives better,” said Sanford, who is heading his party’s electoral efforts as chairman of the RGA. Republicans, he said, “need to show policy innovations and improvements and earn their way back.”

“We’re not going to be able to win federal races until we show people in these states that our ideas as a governing party work again,” said Nick Ayers, the RGA’s executive director. “The only opportunity to prove to Americans that our policy ideas work is at the state level.”

“History suggests that Republican governors may be one of the keys to moving Republicans out of the wilderness,” Sanford added.

With Democrats holding 28 of 50 seats, Republicans see both challenges and opportunities in the coming years.

The opportunities to rebuild begin this November, when Democrats must defend two seats. In Virginia, an open seat, coupled with the prospect of a bloody Democratic primary between three strong contenders, gives Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) a leg up. In New Jersey, the GOP is encouraged by early polling showing former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) leading or competing with Gov. Jon Corzine (D).

Come 2010, term limits will leave takeover opportunities for both parties. Popular Democratic incumbents will give up control of Republican-leaning states like Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming (pending a lawsuit that could allow Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal to run for a third term). Republicans will surrender power in blue states like Hawaii, California and Rhode Island, putting the GOP at a disadvantage there.

“It’s sort of the Super Bowl of electoral races,” Sanford said.

Both the RGA and the DGA put emphasis on protecting their incumbents, and with a few exceptions, those incumbents look safe.

Nevertheless, a few governors will have serious races ahead of them. New York Gov. David Paterson (D) may be more vulnerable to a primary challenge than to a Republican opponent and, despite his popularity, Ohio Republicans are optimistic about recruiting a top-tier challenger against Gov. Ted Strickland (D).

On the GOP side, Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) will likely face a tough fight in a primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), newly installed after Janet Napolitano (D) became President Obama’s secretary of Homeland Security, faces the prospect of a well-funded Democratic challenger.

And Republicans and Democrats alike believe that should Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (R), embroiled in ethics controversies and showing some of the worst approval ratings in the country, run for reelection, he will almost certainly lose the primary or the general election.

In most states, governors have at least some influence on the coming redistricting process. And as reapportionment looms, governorships and state legislatures in those states slated to pick up or lose seats are becoming important political battlegrounds.

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, as well as projections by Election Data Services Inc., suggest six states will be among those picking up seats when reapportionment takes effect in 2012. Texas is likely to pick up three seats, while Utah, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Georgia are all slated to gain an extra representative (some estimates suggest Arizona could gain two seats).

Michigan, Louisiana, Minnesota, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania are set to lose seats.