States In the Redistricting Spotlight

Reid Wilson is associate editor at RealClearPolitics.com, and hosts Politics Nation on XM Satellite Radio Saturday mornings.

States In the Redistricting Spotlight
March 1, 2008
By Reid Wilson
http://www.campaignsandelections.com/stories/?StoryID=0D000E07-1422-17E0-F8F65652D0 8D5571

Leaders in both parties are planning which states to target for redistricting, but it all depends on who does well come November. Should Democrats sweep, look for them to make a play in Michigan, Nevada and Texas-where Republicans currently hold narrow control of the legislature but where Democrats could redistrict themselves to a congressional majority. Should Republicans do well this cycle, look for them to try to retake the statehouses in Indiana, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

If Democrats Win Big...

To have a dramatic effect on redistricting, Democrats have targeted several chambers in which Republicans hold narrow control. Several states could provide a big boost to the party's congressional majority.

Michigan: Party strategists are optimistic about their chances in Michigan, where they control the governor's mansion and the Statehouse but are four seats short in the 38-seat Senate. A shift of power in that chamber could put as many as six Republican members of Congress at risk. The DCCC has already targeted Reps. Tim Walberg and Joe Knollenberg for defeat, and if they fail this year, a few additional Democratic state legislators in those districts could prove the tipping point. A wrinkle: Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm is term-limited in 2010, requiring the party to keep the seat for their redistricting hopes to come through.

Nevada: In Nevada, Republican Rep. Jon Porter holds a district that rings the Las Vegas suburbs. If Democrats take back the state Senate, in which Republicans hold just an 11-10 majority, they will have the upper hand when taking a redistricting plan to Republican Gov. Jim Gibbons. Al Gore already won Porter's district, and because the state will gain an additional seat, creative map work might cut him off from his GOP base, which could be split between the new seat and Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley's heavily Democratic Las Vegas-based seat. If Porter has to face a more liberal electorate, the Silver State could help Democrats pick up two seats.

Texas: A truly massive Democratic wave could even net the party the five seats it needs to retake control of the Texas House. When Republicans retook the state, a Tom DeLay-inspired redistricting plan cost Democrats half a dozen seats in Congress. And while the GOP has a big advantage in the state Senate and a governor's mansion that is almost certainly going to stay in their hands, a Democratic House would make the redistricting process a lot more friendly to the party. The state will probably gain three seats in 2010, making Democrats' efforts there all the more crucial. At the least, Democrats could gum up the system, forcing a court to become involved and draw what the party has to believe are more beneficial competitive districts.

If Republicans Win Big...
After the Democratic wave in 2006, and what may be an unfavorable climate this year, Republicans could begin the redistricting process, perhaps counter-intuitively, with an advantage. Many new incumbent Democrats occupy seats that, in a normal political climate, would cast ballots for the GOP. After two years of a president not named George W. Bush, the landscape may look more favorable in several states for Republicans, allowing them to retake several crucial chambers.

Indiana: Indiana is the linchpin of big GOP hopes. In 2006, Democrats Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill all beat Republican incumbents in districts that voted heavily for Bush in both of his elections. If those three remain in office come 2010, and if Republicans win back the two seats they need to control the state House, a redrawn map could help the GOP retake at least two seats in Congress. Republican incumbents Mark Souder, Steve Buyer, Dan Burton and Mike Pence all represent heavily GOP districts, and each could donate a few of their more Republican-friendly voters to help the cause.

Pennsylvania: In Pennsylvania, too, Democrats had a strong year in 2006. The party picked up four U.S. House seats, as well as enough seats to retake the Statehouse by a single vote, 102-101. The state legislature controls redistricting, and while House seats in the Philadelphia suburbs elected Democrats after slowly trending toward that party for decades, Republicans could help show freshmen Democrats like Chris Carney and Jason Altmire the door. The GOP could also add Republican voters to Rep. Jim Gerlach's district, an incumbent who has yet to face an easy reelection bid. Democrat Tim Holden, a long-time incumbent whose district ranges from the Philadelphia exurbs to Harrisburg, could also find himself on the losing end of a GOP-controlled redistricting. A Republican wrinkle: The party's chances of a good redistricting cycle could hinge on its ability to wrest control of the governor's mansion. Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell will face term limits in 2010.

Ohio: Republican legislators in Ohio enjoy wide majorities, and as the state loses two seats in 2010, that gap could be crucial to easing Democrats out of office. Democrats Zack Space and Charlie Wilson represent districts that both favored Bush in 2004, and 2012 may find them both drawn into new, more Republican-heavy districts. And as the DCCC turns its guns on Republican Steve Chabot and seats currently held by retiring Reps. Deborah Pryce and Ralph Regula, GOP legislators could play an instrumental role in undercutting new Democratic incumbents or shoring up their own members of Congress. As in Pennsylvania, though, Democrats hold the governor's mansion. Unlike Pennsylvania, Gov. Ted Strickland is not term-limited, making the governor's race in 2010 one of the most important in the country in terms of redistricting.

If Neither Party Takes A Clear Majority ...
With more than 7,200 legislative seats up for grabs over the next three years, it's possible that neither party could build massive majorities that help them rack up big redistricting wins. In that case, the battleground will shift to states that gain or lose seats. And in many of those states, Democrats find themselves at something of a disadvantage.

Florida: Florida Republicans have nearly two-to-one majorities in both state legislative chambers. That margin will prove valuable to the party as it adds two new seats. Instead of a 16-9 congressional seat advantage, absent a major shift in the state's political outlook Republicans could increase that margin to double up Democratic gains. The DCCC is targeting several Republican incumbents as well, and bolstering those endangered incumbents will be another top GOP priority.

Georgia: Long a stronghold of southern Democrats, Georgia has undergone radical changes in the last decade. Republicans now dominate the state legislature after spending years in the minority, and when the state adds another seat after redistricting, the party could gain more than just the new addition. Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall and John Barrow, both of whom face difficult reelections every cycle, may find themselves drawn into districts that will break their already tenuous holds.

Pick-Ups: Other states are likely to benefit long-time legislative majorities. Utah, which will gain a seat, is one of the most Republican in the nation-even the state's lone Democratic congressman, Rep. Jim Matheson, represents a district that voted for Bush by a 35-point margin in 2004. In California, one of the most gerrymandered states in the country-the state legislature has drawn districts so safe for the incumbents that in 2006, a great Democratic year, just one of 53 congressional seats switched hands-Democrats will have the opportunity to draw another seat, likely favoring their party.

Losses: States losing seats will have a similar impact. Louisiana, one of the last remaining southern states with a strong Democratic party, will give up a seat. With a congressional delegation made up of five Republicans and two Democrats, it will likely be Democrats that suffer when the state loses a seat because of population loss after Hurricane Katrina. In Massachusetts, another state losing a member of Congress, Democrats will certainly suffer-the state's 10-member delegation is made up entirely of Democrats.